Strait Chokepoints

First laden tankers clear Hormuz incident-free, but underwriters hold rates well above baseline — a ceasefire alone won't reprice the market until months of clean transit data accumulate. Premiums settle near ~3.1% standard / 6.2% US-nexus (~$3.7M per VLCC transit), still ~25x the 0.125% pre-war baseline.

The memorandum is signed electronically by both sides; the planned Bürgenstock (Switzerland) signing ceremony is cancelled. Toll-free transits resume as the deal locks in. Premiums fall to ~3.3% standard / 6.6% US-nexus (~$4.0M per VLCC transit).

Pakistan confirms the signed US–Iran MOU means the US naval blockade of Iranian ports ceases immediately and the Strait of Hormuz reopens promptly, toll-free for 60 days. With the blockade actually lifting, premiums ease to ~3.6% standard / 7.2% US-nexus (~$4.3M per VLCC transit).

No fresh escalation. Premiums ease marginally to ~3.9% standard / 7.75% US-nexus (~$4.7M per VLCC transit) as the market awaits the Jun 19 Geneva signing. The strait remains physically closed pending the deal; underwriters hold rates far above the 0.125% baseline until incident-free transit data accumulates.

With the deal de-risking transit, war risk premiums start receding from peak to ~4.0% standard / 8.0% US-nexus (~$4.8M per VLCC transit). But the strait isn't physically reopened until after the Jun 19 signing, and underwriters caution the disrupted market — ~600+ stranded tankers, repricing on incident-free transit data — takes months to fully untangle, so rates stay far above the 0.125% pre-war baseline.

US and Iran announce an initial agreement to end the war: Trump orders the naval blockade to stand down and the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, toll-free for a 60-day window while broader nuclear talks continue. Official signing set for Jun 19 in Switzerland (Iran's semi-official agencies say fees may return after 60 days; nuclear program unresolved). Oil falls ~5% — Brent ~$83, WTI ~$80.75.

Trump announces a 60-day ceasefire extension to enable negotiations toward a final agreement. The strait remains closed and the blockade in force; underwriters hold premiums near peak (~$6.3M per VLCC transit) pending evidence of a durable reopening.

Trump announces military action over stalled negotiations; US airstrikes hit Iranian targets. Iran's military declares the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatens to attack any vessel attempting passage. War risk premiums re-spike to ~5.25% standard / 10.5% US-nexus — a fresh peak.

With the truce nominally holding, SPY sets an all-time high (~$759) and Hormuz premiums ease to ~3.4%. Underwriters (Willis Towers Watson) caution rates won't fall meaningfully until years of incident-free transit data accumulate.

US forces hit missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines near Bandar Abbas, citing self-defense. Premiums jump back to ~4.5% (9% US-nexus) on renewed mining risk.

Saudi Aramco's CEO reports over 600 tankers stuck inside the Persian Gulf and another 240 waiting outside the strait. Shipping revives only gradually — 29 of 109 large oil tankers manage to exit under CENTCOM navigational advice. Premiums hold elevated near 4%.

Iran accuses the US of violating the ceasefire by targeting two ships and striking coastal facilities; CENTCOM says it conducted defensive operations after attacks on three American destroyers transiting the strait. Premiums spike back to ~4.5%.

Trump launches a US Navy mission to escort merchant ships out of the Gulf, then pauses it on May 6 citing 'great progress' toward a deal. A 60-day US–Iran memorandum of understanding frames a ceasefire and nuclear talks. Premiums drift toward ~3% on safe-passage hopes.

Trump extends the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the US naval blockade and keeping forces combat-ready. After the US seized the Iran-flagged Touska (Apr 19) for breaching the blockade, traffic drops back to early-March lows. ~20,000 mariners and 2,000 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf. Premiums ease modestly to ~4.5% as an open-ended truce reduces near-term escalation odds, but the blockade keeps rates elevated.

Strait closed under IRGC 'strict management'; no vessel movement permitted. Iran cites US 'breaches of trust' over blockade. Pakistan expected to host second round of US–Iran negotiations early next week. Underwriters hold premiums at peak levels (~5% standard / 10% US-nexus). Ceasefire expires Apr 22.

Iran reverses course and re-closes Hormuz after US refuses to lift naval blockade. IRGC gunboats fire on merchant vessels; VLCC Sanmar Herald struck on bridge windows despite prior clearance — no radio contact before shots fired. Iran navy warns any ship attempting transit will be targeted. War risk premiums spike back to 5% (standard) / 10% (US-nexus). Ceasefire expires Apr 22.

Iran's FM Araghchi announces Hormuz open for all shipping for duration of Lebanon ceasefire. Trump contradicts on Truth Social: 'strait is open but US blockade remains until negotiations conclude.' Oil drops 11%; war risk premiums crash from 3.5% to ~2.25%. Confusion reigns as conflicting signals emerge.

US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues into day 4. No new talks scheduled. Premiums steady at ~3.5% as underwriters await diplomatic signal.

MarineTraffic shows additional tanker departing Iranian port and transiting Hormuz despite US blockade. Enforcement gaps raise questions about blockade credibility; premiums hold elevated as market awaits talks resumption.

Trump hints US-Iran talks could resume over the next two days. Hezbollah rejects Israel talks. Underwriters ease slightly as diplomatic window reopens, but blockade remains in force.

US military blockade of Iranian ports takes effect at 10 AM ET. Trump: 'doesn't care' about new talks. Brent crude nears $100/bbl (+40% since war began). Shipments restricted by >90% (~10M bpd oil off market). Premiums spike on blockade risk.

Vance, Witkoff, Kushner depart Pakistan after 21-hour marathon talks with zero agreement. Vance: 'we have not reached an agreement... Iranians have chosen not to accept our terms.' Saudi East–West pipeline pumping station hit by Iran, ~700k bpd capacity lost. Premiums reverse higher; strait remains effectively closed.

IRGC vows to 'deal severely' with any military vessel transiting Hormuz; only non-military vessels under 'specific regulations'. Trump says US forces have begun 'clearing' the strait. USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transit to sweep Iranian-laid mines.

Day 42 of the war. Gulf truce nominally holds but Hormuz has not meaningfully reopened. Iran delegates arrive in Islamabad for US talks. Trump warns Iran ahead of high-stakes session.

No sign of Iranian implementation — ships still blocked, $1M+ tolls continue. Tasnim says Iran weighing ceasefire exit over Lebanon strikes. Trump ceasefire deal 'already falling apart' per US commentators. Underwriters hold rates elevated.

US–Iran 2-week ceasefire announced (Pakistan-mediated), conditional on 'complete, immediate, safe' reopening of Hormuz. Netanyahu rejects Lebanon inclusion; Israel launches largest strikes on Lebanon of the war. Iran pauses Hormuz traffic in response. Premiums initially drop to 3.5% on the announcement before reality sets in.

US strikes 90+ military targets on Kharg Island. Russia & China veto UN Hormuz resolution. Trump suspends attacks for 2 weeks; Iran agrees to reopen Hormuz with armed forces coordination.

Israel kills Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, IRGC intelligence chief. Pakistan proposes 45-day ceasefire; Iran initially rejects.

'Gates of hell will open for US' — Iran defies deadline. Premiums spike to near-peak levels.

48-hour deadline: reopen Hormuz by Apr 6 or 'all Hell will reign down.' IRGC strikes MSC Ishyka.

US doubles Hormuz reinsurance commitment; adds AIG, Berkshire, Liberty Mutual.

Iran fires on Israel and Gulf neighbors; no ceasefire in sight.

UK hosts 35-country meeting on reopening Hormuz.

Iranian drone strikes fully laden Kuwaiti VLCC at Dubai port. Fire on board, P&I clubs accelerate Gulf withdrawal.

IRGC turns away 3 ships. Houthis launch ballistic missile at Israel.

Iran allows ships from 5 nations (China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan) to transit. $2M fee imposed.

Hormuz traffic drops to 102 vessels/day (-81%).

Premiums hit 15%; VLCC transits cost $12M.

Major P&I clubs withdraw standard coverage.

Iran announces blockade of Strait of Hormuz.