StockDriftsStockDrifts2026-04-10 12:14 UTC
CRITICAL: Hormuz vessel traffic at 162/day (-70.8% vs baseline). Peak drop: -81.6% on Mar 24 (102 vessels). Bab el-Mandeb already at rock-bottom from Houthi attacks (28-64/day vs 3,000+ at Malacca). Suez and Malacca flat.
Source: Global Fishing Watch Sentinel-1 SAR vessel detections
Hormuz Daily Vessels
Pre-war avg: 554/day
Bab el-Mandeb
Pre-war avg: 55/day
Suez Canal
Pre-war avg: 290/day
Malacca Strait
Pre-war avg: 3161/day
Insurance killed Hormuz before the military did. Premiums 0.25% → 5% in 10 days (20x), eased to ~2.5% by late Mar, then re-spiked after Apr 2 escalation, MSC Ishyka strike (Apr 4), Iran rejecting ultimatum (Apr 5), and Kharg Island strikes (Apr 7). 2-week ceasefire agreed Apr 7 — premiums dropped from 3.5% (Apr 8) to ~2.5% (Apr 10) as underwriters recognize truce, but Hormuz still classified "very high risk." Shippers placing huge volume requests; strait still effectively closed with Iran charging $1M+ tolls. Maersk not yet resuming; 800 vessels still trapped. US-nexus vessels pay 2x more.
~$3.0M
VLCC transit cost (Apr 10)
Suez & Red Sea Detail (lower scale — hidden above due to Hormuz dominance)
Pre-War (Feb 15)
0.25%
~$300K per VLCC
Day 1 (Feb 28)
0.75%
3x overnight
Day 3 (Mar 2)
3.00%
P&I clubs withdraw
Peak (Mar 9)
5-10%
$6-12M per VLCC transit
Current (Apr 10)
2.5-5%
Ceasefire easing; still "very high risk"
Sentinel-1 SAR + AIS matched detections | Feb 16 – Apr 6, 2026
Pre-War Average
554
vessels/day
Current (Apr 6)
162
vessels/day
Change
-70.8%
vs pre-war
Lowest Day
102
Mar 24
Peak Drop
-81.6%
from baseline
Hormuz collapsed 75%. Bab el-Mandeb already depressed from Houthi attacks. Suez and Malacca flat.
Red = current level, Orange = peak disruption (worst day)
Key events driving the disruption
Underwriters recognize ceasefire with 'pronounced rate correction' — premiums ease to ~2.75%. Iran still limiting transits, charging $1M+ tolls. Only handful of vessels observed crossing.
Ceasefire takes effect. Huge volume of insurance requests as shipowners eye Hormuz passage. Premiums drop to 3.5% standard. SPY surges 37% to $674. Strait still effectively closed.
US strikes 90+ military targets on Kharg Island. Russia & China veto UN Hormuz resolution. Trump suspends attacks for 2 weeks; Iran agrees to reopen Hormuz with armed forces coordination.
Israel kills Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, IRGC intelligence chief. Pakistan proposes 45-day ceasefire; Iran initially rejects.
'Gates of hell will open for US' — Iran defies deadline. Premiums spike to near-peak levels.
48-hour deadline: reopen Hormuz by Apr 6 or 'all Hell will reign down.' IRGC strikes MSC Ishyka.
US doubles Hormuz reinsurance commitment; adds AIG, Berkshire, Liberty Mutual.
Iran fires on Israel and Gulf neighbors; no ceasefire in sight.
UK hosts 35-country meeting on reopening Hormuz.
Iranian drone strikes fully laden Kuwaiti VLCC at Dubai port. Fire on board, P&I clubs accelerate Gulf withdrawal.
IRGC turns away 3 ships. Houthis launch ballistic missile at Israel.
Iran allows ships from 5 nations (China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan) to transit. $2M fee imposed.
Hormuz traffic drops to 102 vessels/day (-81%).
Premiums hit 15%; VLCC transits cost $12M.
Major P&I clubs withdraw standard coverage.
Iran announces blockade of Strait of Hormuz.
20% of global LNG, 21M bbl/d crude oil transit
162
Current
-70.8%
vs Pre-War
-81.6%
Peak Drop
12% of global trade, Mediterranean-Red Sea link
267
Current
-7.9%
vs Pre-War
-13.1%
Peak Drop
25% of global trade, Indian-Pacific ocean link
3028
Current
-4.2%
vs Pre-War
-8%
Peak Drop
Red Sea entrance, narrower strait (already reduced from Houthi attacks since 2024)
49
Current
-10.1%
vs Pre-War
-48.6%
Peak Drop