Strait of Hormuz & Global Chokepoint Traffic

Foreign Minister Araghchi says an arrangement with Oman is 'very close': inbound traffic would use the channel nearest Iran under Iranian coordination, outbound the Omani side, toll-free for an initial 60 days. But Iran repeats it will not reopen Hormuz without US concessions, so the route deal alone reopens nothing. October Brent settles above $84 (+0.7%), ~16% above pre-war after a 5% three-session run. Only 8–15 vessels crossed on Aug 4–6 against ~130 a day pre-war, and 64 violent incidents and 17 deaths involving commercial vessels have accumulated since February. Underwriters hold at ~8.35% standard / 11.5% top (~$10.0M per VLCC transit) — no new print since Aug 7.

A Houthi drone strikes Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery — ~400,000 bpd of crude processing on the Red Sea coast. The Saudi energy ministry says the fire was extinguished with no injuries, and no supply loss is reported. Southern Red Sea war risk stays above 1% of hull value, with calls at Jizan and Al Shuqaiq still offered as high as 3%.

The UAE condemns an alleged Iranian missile attack on an ADNOC vessel. Iran's national security chief publishes the conditions Tehran wants met before Hormuz reopens — an end to US strikes and to the blockade of Iranian ports, a pullback of US forces around Iran, sanctions relief, unfrozen assets and compensation for war damage. No broker reprints; quotes hold at the Aug 7 level.

ADNOC reports three vessels attacked in the week and at least 70 ships remain trapped in the Gulf. Iran's draft terms — banning US and Israeli vessels and charging hostile states a penalty worth 20% of cargo value — go to parliament, and Brent climbs toward $86 as the market reads them as stricter than expected. Lloyd's List reports insurers seeking $10-14M, to the charterer's account, for a single VLCC voyage; straits.live marks the market at ~$10.0M per transit, 30x pre-crisis, on the 160th day of closure.

The Indian-flagged MSV Faize Noore Oliya sinks off Hodeidah on Aug 4 after a projectile strike — all 14 crew rescued — and the Houthis claim an attack on a Saudi oil tanker on Aug 5, pushing Red Sea rates to ~1.25%. Trump says Hormuz will reopen 'soon' or he will launch a harsh new attack on Iran, but underwriters price the closure, not the rhetoric: ~8.25% standard / 11% top (~$9.9M per VLCC transit).

The Liberia-flagged bulker Minoan Pioneer is hit by a projectile ~20nm northeast of Khasab while transiting the southern corridor in Omani waters — the route owners had been treating as the safe alternative. The engine room strike causes a fire, a complete blackout and abandonment; the third engineer is missing. Commercial transits collapse to 2 vessels on Aug 2 against a ~73/day baseline. Underwriters mark Hormuz to ~8% standard / 10.5% top (~$9.6M per VLCC transit).

Egypt is hit for the first time as the conflict pulls in more countries; US overnight strikes kill a family on Qeshm Island. Iran insists Hormuz remains closed, while Saudi Arabia announces a maritime defense alliance to protect shipping corridors and the US Navy escorts tankers through. Shuttling trade rebounds — 15 transits in 24 hours against ~120 a day pre-war. Underwriters hold at ~7.5% / 10%.

Iran launches a surprise missile attack on US forces in the region, ending the ceasefire lull outright. Brent pushes back above $90 and underwriters mark Hormuz to a fresh war high of ~7.75% standard / 10.5% top (~$9.3M per VLCC transit).

Crude falls back below $100 in its biggest single-day drop since May 25 — the market fatigues on a war that keeps failing to remove barrels. Iran rejects the ceasefire proposal Trump relayed via Iraqi PM al-Zaidi, refusing any temporary deal that leaves control of Hormuz unresolved. Lloyd's/Chubb consortium capacity and US Navy escorts nudge quotes marginally off the high (~7% standard / 9.5% top).

Yemen's Houthis attack two Saudi tankers — the products carrier Encelia and, by their own claim, the Layla — opening a second front while Hormuz stays effectively shut. Brent tops $100 for the first time in two months. Marsh puts Hormuz war risk at 7.5–10% of hull value, up from 1–3% weeks earlier (~$9M per VLCC transit); the IMO counts eight ships hit between Jul 13–20. Southern Red Sea premiums pass 1% from 0.3% a week earlier, with southern Saudi ports (Jizan, Al Shuqaiq) quoted as high as 3% and northern ports (Jeddah, Yanbu) near 0.1%.

Iran strikes a tanker in Hormuz early Tuesday after a tenth straight night of CENTCOM strikes and an Iranian cruise missile attack on AWS infrastructure in Bahrain. Brent tops $90 — the highest since the MOU — and crude adds ~4%, but underwriters hold Hormuz at ~5% of hull value (~$6M per VLCC transit, ~1,900% above the 0.25% baseline). Regional mediators put a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Washington and Tehran; Trump vows retaliation for US troop deaths, and insurers price the conflict rather than the diplomacy.

Yemen's Houthis declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, and Ambrey assesses Saudi-flagged, owned or operated vessels and anything routing to Saudi Red Sea ports as high risk. Indicative Red Sea war risk premiums jump to ~0.75% of hull value from ~0.3% on Friday — hundreds of thousands of dollars extra on a seven-day voyage. A full Bab el-Mandeb closure would strand Saudi crude exports to Asia and cut ~7% of global oil supply. A vessel is reported on fire off Oman; Hormuz traffic remains largely stalled.

Iran formally suspends its commitments under the June memorandum of understanding as CENTCOM completes an eighth consecutive night of strikes. Iran's Health Ministry confirms at least 50 killed and 500+ wounded since Jul 6. Underwriters hold Hormuz at ~5% standard / 10% US-nexus with the deal that repriced the market in June now off the table.

A fifth consecutive day of US strikes on Iranian targets sends war risk premiums to a 3–10% range of hull value, with ~5% emerging as the market norm — roughly 20–40x the 0.25% pre-war baseline, or ~$6M per VLCC transit. Marsh's Marcus Baker: rates have 'been on a roller coaster mirroring the development of the price of oil,' and 'this roller coaster is unlikely to abate until a true and lasting ceasefire is maintained.'

Iran attacks the Stolt Magnesium, Mombasa B and Al Bahyah; one seafarer is killed and eight injured, with the IRGC claiming strikes on 'offending supertankers' in a 'mined route.' CENTCOM reinstates the naval blockade on Jul 15. Premiums push to ~4.5% standard / 9% US-nexus (~$5.4M per VLCC transit).

The IRGC declares Hormuz closed after firing a warning shot at a vessel on an unauthorized route. Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy is heavily damaged; one Indian crew member is confirmed dead on Jul 14. The US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile batteries and air defenses. Premiums climb to ~4% standard / 8% US-nexus.

At the NATO summit Trump declares the ceasefire 'over' after Iranian attacks on commercial vessels. Visible Hormuz traffic virtually grinds to a halt and London insurers report a sharp fall in quote requests as owners refuse to commit to transits. The market reprices to a 2–6% range (~$6M per transit at the top end).

Two vessels are struck over Jul 6–7 — Qatari-owned LNG carrier Al Rekayat, evacuated after an engine room fire, and Saudi-flagged VLCC Wedyan. Rates turn higher off their lows (~2.2% standard / 4.4% US-nexus).

With the strait reopened under the MOU, the oil shortage flips to a glut and the EIA raises its global production forecast (Jul 7). War risk rates drift below 2% for the first time since February (~1.9% standard / 3.8% US-nexus, ~$2.3M per VLCC transit).

The oil tanker Kiku is hit by an Iranian attack drone, damaging its bridge; CENTCOM responds with airstrikes on Iranian military and communications sites.

Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely is attacked southeast of Dahit, Oman; the IMO pauses its plan to evacuate 11,000 sailors from the strait. CENTCOM strikes Iranian missile, drone and coastal radar sites including Qeshm Island on Jun 26. Traffic picks up slowly but underwriters report no material shift in rates (~3.2% standard / 6.4% US-nexus).

First laden tankers clear Hormuz incident-free, but underwriters hold rates well above baseline — a ceasefire alone won't reprice the market until months of clean transit data accumulate. Premiums settle near ~3.1% standard / 6.2% US-nexus (~$3.7M per VLCC transit), still ~25x the 0.125% pre-war baseline.

The memorandum is signed electronically by both sides; the planned Bürgenstock (Switzerland) signing ceremony is cancelled. Toll-free transits resume as the deal locks in. Premiums fall to ~3.3% standard / 6.6% US-nexus (~$4.0M per VLCC transit).

Pakistan confirms the signed US–Iran MOU means the US naval blockade of Iranian ports ceases immediately and the Strait of Hormuz reopens promptly, toll-free for 60 days. With the blockade actually lifting, premiums ease to ~3.6% standard / 7.2% US-nexus (~$4.3M per VLCC transit).

No fresh escalation. Premiums ease marginally to ~3.9% standard / 7.75% US-nexus (~$4.7M per VLCC transit) as the market awaits the Jun 19 Geneva signing. The strait remains physically closed pending the deal; underwriters hold rates far above the 0.125% baseline until incident-free transit data accumulates.

With the deal de-risking transit, war risk premiums start receding from peak to ~4.0% standard / 8.0% US-nexus (~$4.8M per VLCC transit). But the strait isn't physically reopened until after the Jun 19 signing, and underwriters caution the disrupted market — ~600+ stranded tankers, repricing on incident-free transit data — takes months to fully untangle, so rates stay far above the 0.125% pre-war baseline.

US and Iran announce an initial agreement to end the war: Trump orders the naval blockade to stand down and the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, toll-free for a 60-day window while broader nuclear talks continue. Official signing set for Jun 19 in Switzerland (Iran's semi-official agencies say fees may return after 60 days; nuclear program unresolved). Oil falls ~5% — Brent ~$83, WTI ~$80.75.

Trump announces a 60-day ceasefire extension to enable negotiations toward a final agreement. The strait remains closed and the blockade in force; underwriters hold premiums near peak (~$6.3M per VLCC transit) pending evidence of a durable reopening.

Trump announces military action over stalled negotiations; US airstrikes hit Iranian targets. Iran's military declares the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatens to attack any vessel attempting passage. War risk premiums re-spike to ~5.25% standard / 10.5% US-nexus — a fresh peak.

With the truce nominally holding, SPY sets an all-time high (~$759) and Hormuz premiums ease to ~3.4%. Underwriters (Willis Towers Watson) caution rates won't fall meaningfully until years of incident-free transit data accumulate.

US forces hit missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines near Bandar Abbas, citing self-defense. Premiums jump back to ~4.5% (9% US-nexus) on renewed mining risk.

Saudi Aramco's CEO reports over 600 tankers stuck inside the Persian Gulf and another 240 waiting outside the strait. Shipping revives only gradually — 29 of 109 large oil tankers manage to exit under CENTCOM navigational advice. Premiums hold elevated near 4%.

Iran accuses the US of violating the ceasefire by targeting two ships and striking coastal facilities; CENTCOM says it conducted defensive operations after attacks on three American destroyers transiting the strait. Premiums spike back to ~4.5%.

Trump launches a US Navy mission to escort merchant ships out of the Gulf, then pauses it on May 6 citing 'great progress' toward a deal. A 60-day US–Iran memorandum of understanding frames a ceasefire and nuclear talks. Premiums drift toward ~3% on safe-passage hopes.

Trump extends the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the US naval blockade and keeping forces combat-ready. After the US seized the Iran-flagged Touska (Apr 19) for breaching the blockade, traffic drops back to early-March lows. ~20,000 mariners and 2,000 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf. Premiums ease modestly to ~4.5% as an open-ended truce reduces near-term escalation odds, but the blockade keeps rates elevated.

Strait closed under IRGC 'strict management'; no vessel movement permitted. Iran cites US 'breaches of trust' over blockade. Pakistan expected to host second round of US–Iran negotiations early next week. Underwriters hold premiums at peak levels (~5% standard / 10% US-nexus). Ceasefire expires Apr 22.

Iran reverses course and re-closes Hormuz after US refuses to lift naval blockade. IRGC gunboats fire on merchant vessels; VLCC Sanmar Herald struck on bridge windows despite prior clearance — no radio contact before shots fired. Iran navy warns any ship attempting transit will be targeted. War risk premiums spike back to 5% (standard) / 10% (US-nexus). Ceasefire expires Apr 22.

Iran's FM Araghchi announces Hormuz open for all shipping for duration of Lebanon ceasefire. Trump contradicts on Truth Social: 'strait is open but US blockade remains until negotiations conclude.' Oil drops 11%; war risk premiums crash from 3.5% to ~2.25%. Confusion reigns as conflicting signals emerge.

US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues into day 4. No new talks scheduled. Premiums steady at ~3.5% as underwriters await diplomatic signal.

MarineTraffic shows additional tanker departing Iranian port and transiting Hormuz despite US blockade. Enforcement gaps raise questions about blockade credibility; premiums hold elevated as market awaits talks resumption.

Trump hints US-Iran talks could resume over the next two days. Hezbollah rejects Israel talks. Underwriters ease slightly as diplomatic window reopens, but blockade remains in force.

US military blockade of Iranian ports takes effect at 10 AM ET. Trump: 'doesn't care' about new talks. Brent crude nears $100/bbl (+40% since war began). Shipments restricted by >90% (~10M bpd oil off market). Premiums spike on blockade risk.

Vance, Witkoff, Kushner depart Pakistan after 21-hour marathon talks with zero agreement. Vance: 'we have not reached an agreement... Iranians have chosen not to accept our terms.' Saudi East–West pipeline pumping station hit by Iran, ~700k bpd capacity lost. Premiums reverse higher; strait remains effectively closed.

IRGC vows to 'deal severely' with any military vessel transiting Hormuz; only non-military vessels under 'specific regulations'. Trump says US forces have begun 'clearing' the strait. USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transit to sweep Iranian-laid mines.

Day 42 of the war. Gulf truce nominally holds but Hormuz has not meaningfully reopened. Iran delegates arrive in Islamabad for US talks. Trump warns Iran ahead of high-stakes session.

No sign of Iranian implementation — ships still blocked, $1M+ tolls continue. Tasnim says Iran weighing ceasefire exit over Lebanon strikes. Trump ceasefire deal 'already falling apart' per US commentators. Underwriters hold rates elevated.

US–Iran 2-week ceasefire announced (Pakistan-mediated), conditional on 'complete, immediate, safe' reopening of Hormuz. Netanyahu rejects Lebanon inclusion; Israel launches largest strikes on Lebanon of the war. Iran pauses Hormuz traffic in response. Premiums initially drop to 3.5% on the announcement before reality sets in.

US strikes 90+ military targets on Kharg Island. Russia & China veto UN Hormuz resolution. Trump suspends attacks for 2 weeks; Iran agrees to reopen Hormuz with armed forces coordination.

Israel kills Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, IRGC intelligence chief. Pakistan proposes 45-day ceasefire; Iran initially rejects.

'Gates of hell will open for US' — Iran defies deadline. Premiums spike to near-peak levels.

48-hour deadline: reopen Hormuz by Apr 6 or 'all Hell will reign down.' IRGC strikes MSC Ishyka.

US doubles Hormuz reinsurance commitment; adds AIG, Berkshire, Liberty Mutual.

Iran fires on Israel and Gulf neighbors; no ceasefire in sight.

UK hosts 35-country meeting on reopening Hormuz.

Iranian drone strikes fully laden Kuwaiti VLCC at Dubai port. Fire on board, P&I clubs accelerate Gulf withdrawal.

IRGC turns away 3 ships. Houthis launch ballistic missile at Israel.

Iran allows ships from 5 nations (China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan) to transit. $2M fee imposed.

Hormuz traffic drops to 102 vessels/day (-81%).

Premiums hit 15%; VLCC transits cost $12M.

Major P&I clubs withdraw standard coverage.

Iran announces blockade of Strait of Hormuz.