StockDriftsStockDrifts2026-04-15 12:14 UTC
CRITICAL: Hormuz vessel traffic at 231/day (-58.3% vs baseline). Peak drop: -81.6% on Mar 24 (102 vessels). Bab el-Mandeb already at rock-bottom from Houthi attacks (28-64/day vs 3,000+ at Malacca). Suez and Malacca flat.
Source: Global Fishing Watch Sentinel-1 SAR vessel detections
Hormuz Daily Vessels
Pre-war avg: 554/day
Bab el-Mandeb
Pre-war avg: 55/day
Suez Canal
Pre-war avg: 290/day
Malacca Strait
Pre-war avg: 3161/day
Insurance killed Hormuz before the military did. Premiums 0.25% → 5% in 10 days (20x), eased to ~2.5% by late Mar, then re-spiked after Apr 2 escalation, MSC Ishyka strike (Apr 4), Iran rejecting ultimatum (Apr 5), and Kharg Island strikes (Apr 7). 2-week ceasefire agreed Apr 7 — premiums dropped from 3.5% (Apr 8) to ~2.5% (Apr 10), then reversed higher to 3.5% (Apr 12) after Islamabad talks collapsed and Saudi East–West pipeline strike. Apr 13 US naval blockade drove premiums to 4.5%. Apr 17: Iran declared Hormuz “open” — premiums eased slightly to ~3.0% — insurers not ready to drop rates and oil fell 11%. Apr 18: Iran re-closed Hormuz after US refused to lift blockade — premiums spiked back to 5%. Ceasefire expires Apr 22; strait remains “very high risk.” US-nexus vessels pay 2x more.
~$6M
VLCC transit cost (Apr 19)
Suez & Red Sea Detail (lower scale — hidden above due to Hormuz dominance)
Pre-War (Feb 15)
0.25%
~$300K per VLCC
Day 1 (Feb 28)
0.75%
3x overnight
Day 3 (Mar 2)
3.00%
P&I clubs withdraw
Peak (Mar 9)
5-10%
$6-12M per VLCC transit
Current (Apr 19)
5-10%
IRGC fired on ships Apr 18; strait closed. Ceasefire expires Apr 22
Sentinel-1 SAR + AIS matched detections | Feb 16 – Apr 15, 2026
Pre-War Average
554
vessels/day
Current (Apr 15)
231
vessels/day
Change
-58.3%
vs pre-war
Lowest Day
102
Mar 24
Peak Drop
-81.6%
from baseline
Hormuz collapsed 75%. Bab el-Mandeb already depressed from Houthi attacks. Suez and Malacca flat.
Red = current level, Orange = peak disruption (worst day)
Key events driving the disruption
Strait closed under IRGC 'strict management'; no vessel movement permitted. Iran cites US 'breaches of trust' over blockade. Pakistan expected to host second round of US–Iran negotiations early next week. Underwriters hold premiums at peak levels (~5% standard / 10% US-nexus). Ceasefire expires Apr 22.
Iran reverses course and re-closes Hormuz after US refuses to lift naval blockade. IRGC gunboats fire on merchant vessels; VLCC Sanmar Herald struck on bridge windows despite prior clearance — no radio contact before shots fired. Iran navy warns any ship attempting transit will be targeted. War risk premiums spike back to 5% (standard) / 10% (US-nexus). Ceasefire expires Apr 22.
Iran's FM Araghchi announces Hormuz open for all shipping for duration of Lebanon ceasefire. Trump contradicts on Truth Social: 'strait is open but US blockade remains until negotiations conclude.' Oil drops 11%; war risk premiums crash from 3.5% to ~2.25%. Confusion reigns as conflicting signals emerge.
US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues into day 4. No new talks scheduled. Premiums steady at ~3.5% as underwriters await diplomatic signal.
MarineTraffic shows additional tanker departing Iranian port and transiting Hormuz despite US blockade. Enforcement gaps raise questions about blockade credibility; premiums hold elevated as market awaits talks resumption.
Trump hints US-Iran talks could resume over the next two days. Hezbollah rejects Israel talks. Underwriters ease slightly as diplomatic window reopens, but blockade remains in force.
US military blockade of Iranian ports takes effect at 10 AM ET. Trump: 'doesn't care' about new talks. Brent crude nears $100/bbl (+40% since war began). Shipments restricted by >90% (~10M bpd oil off market). Premiums spike on blockade risk.
Vance, Witkoff, Kushner depart Pakistan after 21-hour marathon talks with zero agreement. Vance: 'we have not reached an agreement... Iranians have chosen not to accept our terms.' Saudi East–West pipeline pumping station hit by Iran, ~700k bpd capacity lost. Premiums reverse higher; strait remains effectively closed.
IRGC vows to 'deal severely' with any military vessel transiting Hormuz; only non-military vessels under 'specific regulations'. Trump says US forces have begun 'clearing' the strait. USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transit to sweep Iranian-laid mines.
Day 42 of the war. Gulf truce nominally holds but Hormuz has not meaningfully reopened. Iran delegates arrive in Islamabad for US talks. Trump warns Iran ahead of high-stakes session.
No sign of Iranian implementation — ships still blocked, $1M+ tolls continue. Tasnim says Iran weighing ceasefire exit over Lebanon strikes. Trump ceasefire deal 'already falling apart' per US commentators. Underwriters hold rates elevated.
US–Iran 2-week ceasefire announced (Pakistan-mediated), conditional on 'complete, immediate, safe' reopening of Hormuz. Netanyahu rejects Lebanon inclusion; Israel launches largest strikes on Lebanon of the war. Iran pauses Hormuz traffic in response. Premiums initially drop to 3.5% on the announcement before reality sets in.
US strikes 90+ military targets on Kharg Island. Russia & China veto UN Hormuz resolution. Trump suspends attacks for 2 weeks; Iran agrees to reopen Hormuz with armed forces coordination.
Israel kills Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, IRGC intelligence chief. Pakistan proposes 45-day ceasefire; Iran initially rejects.
'Gates of hell will open for US' — Iran defies deadline. Premiums spike to near-peak levels.
48-hour deadline: reopen Hormuz by Apr 6 or 'all Hell will reign down.' IRGC strikes MSC Ishyka.
US doubles Hormuz reinsurance commitment; adds AIG, Berkshire, Liberty Mutual.
Iran fires on Israel and Gulf neighbors; no ceasefire in sight.
UK hosts 35-country meeting on reopening Hormuz.
Iranian drone strikes fully laden Kuwaiti VLCC at Dubai port. Fire on board, P&I clubs accelerate Gulf withdrawal.
IRGC turns away 3 ships. Houthis launch ballistic missile at Israel.
Iran allows ships from 5 nations (China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan) to transit. $2M fee imposed.
Hormuz traffic drops to 102 vessels/day (-81%).
Premiums hit 15%; VLCC transits cost $12M.
Major P&I clubs withdraw standard coverage.
Iran announces blockade of Strait of Hormuz.
20% of global LNG, 21M bbl/d crude oil transit
231
Current
-58.3%
vs Pre-War
-81.6%
Peak Drop
12% of global trade, Mediterranean-Red Sea link
277
Current
-4.4%
vs Pre-War
-13.1%
Peak Drop
25% of global trade, Indian-Pacific ocean link
3085
Current
-2.4%
vs Pre-War
-8%
Peak Drop
Red Sea entrance, narrower strait (already reduced from Houthi attacks since 2024)
53
Current
-2.8%
vs Pre-War
-48.6%
Peak Drop