Optiver Holding B.v. rotates from crowded AI darlings into cyclicals and carry

The biggest dollar adds cluster around three ideas: second-wave semis, real-asset cyclicals, and balance-sheet leverage to higher nominal growth.

• Micron (7.46% position) is the tell: shares are up massively versus cost (+368.7% vs avg buy) and yet Optiver still lifted exposure by +67.6%. That’s not a momentum chase; it’s a conviction bet that memory remains structurally scarce in AI and data-center buildouts.
• Taiwan Semi at 16.45% is the portfolio’s anchor. They increased it again (+10.4%), effectively crowning it the core AI manufacturing winner as they reduce more speculative or fully priced software names.
• In energy, the surge into XLE (now 3.19% after a $84.3M add) plus a 59.7% increase in Shell and a new $12.2M BHP stake says they want exposure to real assets and cash-flow machines as inflation proves sticky.
• Macro beta and carry are being deliberately built: a new $65.8M DIA stake, a fresh $48.2M in HYG, and a $90.1M position in XLF (after a +62.7% add) all point to a view that large-cap, quality cyclicals and high-yield credit can work even if growth grinds sideways.
• The financials theme runs deeper in single names: Berkshire is ramped +2030.6% to $35.4M, Morgan Stanley is up +424.3%, and Bank of America +57.9%. That’s a clear expression that balance sheets and fee franchises are mispriced relative to a higher-for-longer rate backdrop.
• On the riskier edge, new positions in SOFI ($37.0M), BBD ($22.4M), and LYG ($12.5M), plus a 1496.3% increase in Coinbase, show an appetite for asset-sensitive and fintech plays that can re-rate sharply if credit remains benign and capital markets stay open.

The funding sources are just as thematic as the buys. Optiver is not de-risking the AI complex altogether; it’s rotating within it and skimming the cream from the most crowded names.

• NVIDIA is the poster child: shares cut -90.9%, with roughly $121.7M pulled out while still sitting on a +64.1% gain vs cost. That is classic profit-taking after an overextended run and a reallocation to cheaper, earlier-cycle beneficiaries like Micron and AMAT (up +109.6%).
• Alphabet and Microsoft both see deep trims (GOOG -70.0%, MSFT -68.6%), even though GOOG still carries a +135.2% gain. Optiver is effectively saying the easy multiple expansion for the AI hyperscalers is done, and they’d rather own the picks-and-shovels and balance-sheet plays.
• Software and growth names that disappointed or look rich on fundamentals are being downsized: Palantir (-33.3%, now at a loss vs avg buy), Salesforce (-22.8%), and JD.com (-50.0%) are all clear examples of cooling conviction.
• Industrial and travel beta is also a partial source of cash. XLI is cut -60.5%, Carnival CUK -58.0%. They’re not abandoning cyclicals, just swapping generic industrial exposure for more targeted energy, banks, and Dow leaders.
• In defensives, they are happy to realize gains and rotate: British American Tobacco is trimmed -41.5% while still up +23.1% vs cost, and large pharma positions like Novartis (-38.9%) and GSK (-28.3%) are reduced to fund a cleaner, more focused AZN and SNY pair.

The sector bars make the shift obvious: technology is still the spine of the book but no longer the whole story. Tech drops from 70.6% to 59.69%, as the "Unclassified" bucket — really ETFs and thematic wrappers — jumps from 10.8% to 20.77%.

This isn’t laziness; it’s a deliberate move toward factor and macro exposures over idiosyncratic single-name risk. XLE, XLF, DIA, HYG, SOXL, SLV, IBIT, and EWY together give them knobs for energy, financials, Dow cyclicals, credit spreads, leveraged semis, precious metals, Bitcoin, and Korea in one liquid overlay.

Finance creeps up from 8.54% to 9.74% as they scale Berkshire, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and add emerging-market banks like BBD and LYG. Health care edges down (5.78% to 4.75%) as they concentrate into AZN and SNY, while Consumer Discretionary is cut almost in half (2.34% to 1.4%) with JD sharply reduced despite holding onto a thin gain.

Energy more than doubles (0.51% to 1.32%) via Shell and BHP, and Consumer Staples rises (0.3% to 0.78%) with a big Diageo add (+185.8%). A new 0.47% Real Estate bucket via Fiserv (classified here but economically a payments/fintech play) underlines that they’re happy to accept some style-box noise in exchange for exposure to durable fee and transaction volumes.

Put together, this quarter looks less like a retreat and more like a regime-change rebalance. After a multi-year run where tech carried the book (3-year weighted annualized 27.46%, 5-year 19.52%), Optiver is betting that the next leg of returns comes from semis, financials, energy, and carry rather than just mega-cap AI multiple expansion.

The portfolio is now built around three legs: 1) high-conviction semis and infrastructure (TSM, MU, AMD, AMAT, SOXL), 2) balance-sheet and capital-markets beneficiaries of a higher-rate, still-growing world (XLF, Berkshire, MS, BAC, SOFI, COIN, BBD, LYG), and 3) macro overlays and real assets for inflation and volatility (XLE, Shell, BHP, HYG, SLV, IBIT, DIA, EWY).

If markets keep rewarding quality cyclicals, credit, and real assets, this mix should close the gap from the -4.24% quarter and preserve their strong multi-year record. If, instead, leadership swings back to a narrow band of AI megacaps, Optiver will lag the fattest part of that trade but own cheaper, higher-beta expressions via semis and leveraged ETFs.

The thread running through every move is a willingness to trade around themes: harvest gains where hype is thickest, and recycle into liquid, scalable exposures with more room for both earnings and multiples to expand. For anyone tracking professional AI positioning, this 13F reads like a blueprint for how a fast, data-driven shop is preparing for a broader, messier second phase of the cycle.