Simplex Trading 13F Portfolio

The biggest statement buy is IWM, up +3207.7% in shares to 4.21% of the book. That’s an explicit bet that the small‑cap drag ends — or at least that relative performance mean‑reverts as the rate path stabilizes.

They complement that with a huge build in TLT, up +206.1% in shares and now 4.19% of the portfolio, plus a doubling in TMF. Put plainly, Simplex is betting that the next leg of this cycle is driven by falling yields, which would boost the long‑duration assets already dominating their tech book and unlock multiple expansion in lagging cyclicals.

On the stock‑picking side, the firm isn’t walking away from AI — it’s getting more granular. Nvidia is quietly increased, but the real focus is second‑order and levered plays:

• Micron is a new 1.59% position, a direct call that AI‑driven memory demand is still mispriced.
• KLAC explodes +2580.7% in shares; AMAT, AVGO, MRVL, and COHR are all meaningfully added, a cluster bet on semiconductor equipment and connectivity.
• SOXL and additional SOXX position them for a high‑octane continuation of the AI chip trade rather than just sitting in the headline names.

Outside tech, the aggressive +646.7% add to Tesla and +156.1% to Freeport‑McMoRan show a willingness to embrace cyclicality tied to electrification and industrial capex. New stakes in GE Aerospace and GE Vernova push further into that long‑cycle theme.

The funding leg of this quarter is as revealing as the buys. AMD gets cut by -86.2% and TSM by -58.1% — both at triple‑digit gains versus cost — even as Simplex adds to Micron, equipment makers, and leveraged semis.

That looks like a classic internal rotation: crystallize outsized gains in the most crowded AI CPU names and recycle into what they see as earlier‑stage or less fully priced beneficiaries (memory, tools, and beta vehicles). Nvidia, by contrast, is nudged higher and remains the fulcrum.

Big trims in SPY (-73.6% in shares) and GLD (-66.8%) free up capital to move from generic S&P and gold hedging into more opinionated expressions: IWM for small caps, XLU for defensive rate‑sensitives, and TLT/TMF for duration. Health care is the other clear cash machine: UNH is slashed -77.1%, Pfizer -49.4%, and Moderna -29.6%, driving sector weight down to 2.39%.

On the growth side, they take real money off AMZN (-47.0%) and META (-73.8%), both profitable trades, and continue to bleed exposure from NKE and Booking. The message is consistent: de‑risk expensive consumer and health care growth, and redeploy into either earlier‑cycle AI infrastructure or macro‑sensitive plays where the payoff is more tied to the next interest‑rate move than to already‑full multiples.

Look past the labels and the sector rotation is sharp. Technology’s share dips from 55.27% to 52.83%, but within that sleeve Simplex becomes more cyclical and capital‑goods heavy: KLA, Applied, Micron, Coherent, and AVGO all grow, while software‑adjacent exposure (META, some Alphabet class, Palantir) is trimmed at the margin.

The jump in the "Unclassified" bucket to 28.69% is essentially a macro trade reclassification. That bucket is dominated by IWM, TLT, SOXX, SOXL, GLD, URA, XLU, and TMF — a mix that amounts to a view on the yield curve, inflation, and risk appetite rather than stock selection.

Consumer Discretionary falls from 10.22% to 6.48% as AMZN, NKE, BKNG, and to a lesser degree LOW are leaned on for capital, even as COST appears as a new, more defensive retail name. Health Care is where conviction is clearly ebbing, collapsing from 7.89% to 2.39%.

Meanwhile, Industrials jump from 0.98% to 3.86% on outsized Tesla and Corning adds, and Finance climbs from 0.83% to 2.35% via SOFI plus new COIN and HUT. That pairing — more industrial and crypto beta funded by health care and megacap growth — signals a house view that we’re not late‑cycle defensive here, but entering a new leg of risk‑taking that will favor rate‑sensitives and higher‑beta pockets tied to the AI and infra build‑out.

Taken together, Simplex’s moves read as a conviction call on two fronts: AI infrastructure demand will keep surprising to the upside, and the rate environment from here will be an ally, not an enemy, to risk assets. The semi stack — Nvidia, Micron, AVGO, MRVL, KLAC, AMAT, SOXX, SOXL — is no longer just about the marquee GPU; it’s a system‑wide bet on memory, tools, and bandwidth.

By slashing health care, fading gold, and shrinking SPY while loading TLT, TMF, and XLU, they are effectively saying that peak‑rate or disinflation narratives are now investable, not just tradable. If long yields roll over meaningfully, the portfolio is wired to benefit via its AI and growth duration, its new small‑cap exposure, and its levered rate plays.

The added cyclicality through Tesla, Freeport, GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, and the crypto‑sensitive COIN and HUT suggests they don’t see an imminent growth scare. Instead, they’re leaning into themes where operating leverage can compound on top of falling discount rates.

For observers, the signal is straightforward: expect Simplex to keep running an AI‑centric book, but with more of the P&L driven by macro calls around the curve and the equity risk premium. If those macro views are roughly right, this Q2 repositioning could mark the start of a higher‑beta, more thematically concentrated phase in their portfolio construction.