Valley Forge Capital Management 13F Portfolio · Dev Kantesaria

The biggest-buys table is empty, and that is the story. Valley Forge added no new positions and added zero shares to any top holding. So where is conviction rising? In the names that did not get sold. Moody's, ASML Holding, and Intuit all held their share counts flat, and because the overall book shrank, their portfolio weights rose: Moody's to 19.14%, ASML to 10.92%, Intuit to 1.58%.

Moody's is the cleanest expression. Its unchanged position is now 19.14% of the book, up from roughly 16.6% last quarter. ASML, the semiconductor lithography monopoly, rose to 10.92% from roughly 9.5%. This is passive conviction—no fresh dollars, but no willingness to part with the asset either. The fund is letting its highest-quality compounders become larger while it pares elsewhere. No fresh capital went into a new theme; the only change was the denominator.

The sells are concentrated in payment networks. Mastercard was cut by 28.3%, the largest trim at -$216.5M, while Visa was reduced by 22.7%, a -$46.6M reduction. Those two moves took the combined payment weight from roughly 27.0% to 22.7%. Fair Isaac and S&P Global were also trimmed, by 12.6% and 13.3%, respectively, even though both remain core holdings.

Why trim these? The gains are enormous: Visa is up 153.1% versus the fund's average buy price, Fair Isaac is up 195.0%, Mastercard is up 72.8%, and S&P Global is up 31.4%. Those four trims total roughly -$474.5M. With no new 13F longs to fund, the proceeds were not redeployed into visible equities. The cuts look like position-size discipline after years of compounding, not a verdict against the business models.

The NASDAQ sector tags in this filing are badly misleading: Mastercard, Visa, and Fair Isaac are filed under 'Real Estate', which is nonsense. In the real world, this is a financial-infrastructure and data portfolio. Credit scoring, ratings, and analytics—Fair Isaac, S&P Global, Moody's—make up 64.8% of the book. Payment networks—Mastercard and Visa—are 22.7%. ASML and Intuit account for the remaining 12.5%.

The net rotation is subtle but real. Payments fell by about 4.3 percentage points as Mastercard and Visa were cut hardest. Credit ratings and analytics rose by about 2.7 points, mostly because Moody's was left alone while the book shrank. ASML's weight climbed about 1.4 points on an unchanged share count. This is not a sector exodus; it is a rebalancing within the same moat-heavy universe, tilting away from payments and toward data and semiconductor equipment. The screener's Finance bucket is closer, but it still misses the software-like analytics inside Fair Isaac.

Going forward, Valley Forge looks content to run a seven-name book. The 100% top-10 concentration and 64.8% top-three weight mean performance will be driven by a handful of compounders: Fair Isaac's credit-scoring pricing power, Moody's and S&P Global's ratings oligopoly, Mastercard and Visa's payment rails, and ASML's semiconductor lithography monopoly. Intuit is a tiny 1.58% call option on software.

The key question is whether the trims continue. If Mastercard and Visa keep shrinking, the fund is deliberately reducing payment exposure. If Fair Isaac and S&P Global are trimmed again, it may be managing single-position risk after huge gains. The unchanged positions in Moody's, ASML, and Intuit suggest those are the highest-conviction holds right now. With 3-year annualized performance of 9.95% and 5-year annualized performance of 7.3%, the strategy is a steady compounder, not a momentum trader. But the margin for error is thin when three stocks drive nearly two-thirds of the book.