VEON (VEON) 4x Upside? UIG Funds’ Sumit Umatiya on Yet Another Value Podcast

On Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker interviews Sumit Umatiya of UIG Funds about VEON (VEON), a US‑listed emerging‑markets telecom holding company. Umatiya argues the market is heavily discounting VEON despite what he sees as clear asset value and visible growth in its digital businesses.

According to Umatiya, VEON’s stake in its Ukrainian subsidiary alone covers more than half of the group’s enterprise value as of late 2025, leaving the rest of the footprint and digital ecosystem valued at a steep discount. He characterizes the situation as a classic “sum‑of‑the‑parts” mispricing: investors focus on VEON’s troubled history and frontier risk, while overlooking what UIG Funds believes are high‑growth, cash‑generative assets.

Walker repeatedly stresses that VEON has a checkered track record and operates in volatile markets, creating a constant push‑and‑pull between perceived upside and obvious risk. Both Walker and Umatiya emphasize that nothing discussed is investment advice and that the war‑exposed, emerging‑market nature of the story adds meaningful uncertainty.

Umatiya’s central bull case is that VEON should be viewed less as a traditional telecom and more as a “digital operator” with valuable fintech and super‑app platforms in multiple frontier markets. He notes that VEON operates in five primary markets after exiting Russia: Ukraine, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.

The core elements he highlights are:

• A controlling stake of roughly the mid‑80s percent in the listed Ukrainian operator Kyivstar, which he says accounts for more than half of VEON’s look‑through enterprise value.
• Four other operating markets (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) that together generate several billion dollars of revenue and, according to him, grow in local currency at mid‑ to high‑teens rates, excluding Bangladesh.
• A rapidly expanding digital ecosystem (fintech, ride‑hailing, entertainment, healthcare and other services) that management aims to lift from about 25% of group revenue to around 50% over the next four years.

Based on VEON’s disclosed 2024 capital markets targets, Umatiya highlights management’s goal of roughly $900 million to $1 billion of equity free cash flow by 2027. He believes the combination of a “clean” balance sheet and that free cash flow, if achieved, justify using a tech‑style multiple rather than telecom‑like low single‑digit EBITDA multiples.

To support his argument that VEON is undervalued, Umatiya walks through a simplified sum‑of‑the‑parts and cash‑flow view, anchored in figures he says come from VEON’s filings and capital markets materials.

On the sum‑of‑the‑parts, he notes:

• VEON’s stake in Kyivstar is around 84–85%, and he estimates that stake at roughly $2–3 billion based on market prices discussed in his fund work.
• Using late‑2025 figures, he cites a group enterprise value in the vicinity of $5 billion, implying that the non‑Ukraine assets and digital platforms are being valued at about $3 billion of enterprise value.
• For 2025, Umatiya lists approximate revenues of about $1.6 billion for Pakistan, roughly $816 million for Kazakhstan, around $460 million for Bangladesh, and about $308 million for Uzbekistan, or roughly $3.24 billion combined.

He argues that assigning even a 1x revenue multiple to those four markets would imply around two‑thirds of VEON’s enterprise value, before giving any credit to Kyivstar or to the group’s broader digital platform. On cash flow, Umatiya points out that VEON reported about $246 million of equity free cash flow in Q1 2026; annualized, that would exceed $1 billion, broadly in line with management’s 2027 target range.

Using that run‑rate and a 15x equity free cash flow multiple (which he frames as appropriate for a tech‑leaning digital operator rather than a telco), Umatiya arrives at a rough implied equity value of about $15 billion – roughly 4x what he says VEON’s equity was trading for around early 2026.

A major pillar of Umatiya’s thesis is Pakistan’s JazzCash and the broader super‑app strategy. He compares VEON’s fintech assets with mobile money businesses at MTN and Airtel Africa, which he says have attracted strategic investors at significant premiums to their telecom parents.

According to Umatiya, JazzCash processes roughly $60 billion in annual transaction value, about 15% of Pakistan’s GDP, and is growing at double‑digit rates. He emphasizes that JazzCash has never been independently valued, yet VEON management has publicly discussed “crystallizing value” via tools such as strategic investments, spin‑offs, or IPOs. Walker notes VEON’s own disclosures that digital financial services revenue in Pakistan rose from about $156 million in 2023 to roughly $277 million in 2024 and about $377 million in 2025, all in US dollars.

Beyond Pakistan, Umatiya highlights a broader demographic and digitization story. He cites average ages of roughly the mid‑20s in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, and as low as around 22 years in Pakistan, versus about 40 years in the United States. He pairs this with low current penetration: in his estimate, only about half the population across VEON’s footprint are internet users, about 34% of those over 15 have formal bank accounts, and only about one‑third have ever made or received a digital payment. He argues this underpins long‑term secular growth for connectivity and digital services.

Walker pushes repeatedly on why, if the upside is so large, VEON’s valuation remained depressed as of mid‑2026 despite research coverage from institutions such as JPMorgan and sector‑specialist shops. Both he and Umatiya acknowledge several major overhangs.

Historically, Walker describes VEON as having a “not so storied” and “value destructive” past, with investors “getting their heads cut off” on earlier sum‑of‑the‑parts pitches. The business is heavily exposed to emerging and frontier markets that have seen war, hyperinflation, capital controls, and political upheaval. Umatiya concedes, for example, that Ukrainian capital controls at one point limited VEON to upstreaming only about $1 million per month, restricting dividends and buybacks.

There is also a governance and sanction angle. Walker notes that an investor called LetterOne reportedly owns about 45% of VEON, just shy of effective control, and is subject to sanctions. He sees this as a double‑edged sword: it raises concern about future control if sanctions were lifted, but also creates optionality if VEON could retire that stake cheaply through a buyback or asset swap. Umatiya says he has heard little from management or investor relations on LetterOne beyond standard disclosures.

Walker further flags execution risk around VEON’s digital pivot. While digital revenue is growing rapidly and boosted by bolt‑on deals, he says the company has not clearly broken out organic versus acquisition‑driven growth, making it harder for analysts to underwrite a pure “tech” multiple.

Looking forward, Umatiya thinks the key is management’s ability to keep translating VEON’s “AI 1440” digital‑operator strategy into tangible value. He attributes this strategy to CEO Kaan Terzioğlu, who previously worked at Turkcell and, according to Umatiya, implemented a similar multi‑service platform model there.

The “AI 1440” concept, as Umatiya describes it, is that VEON aims to be relevant for all 1,440 minutes of a user’s day, not just when a phone call drops. That means combining core connectivity with fintech, entertainment, ride‑sharing, healthcare, and other digital services accessed via super apps in markets like Pakistan and Bangladesh. Walker points out VEON’s investor materials that depict these platforms as “literal super apps” with multiple monetization levers.

Umatiya highlights several forward‑looking markers:

• Progress toward management’s target of roughly $900 million–$1 billion in equity free cash flow by 2027.
• Any concrete steps to crystallize value at JazzCash or other digital units via strategic sales, IPOs, or spin‑offs.
• Further simplification or monetization of tower and infrastructure assets, following ideas first raised publicly by Shah Capital’s 2022 letter.
• Potential resolution of Ukrainian capital controls and, eventually, clarity on the war and reconstruction timeline.

Walker also notes the possibility—though highly uncertain—that VEON could use future liquidity events (for example, a JazzCash deal) to negotiate with LetterOne over its 45% stake, which could meaningfully change the share count or control structure. Both participants close by reiterating that, while they see large upside potential, VEON remains a complex, risky emerging‑markets situation that demands careful, independent work.